Of course, the SNB would never change their minds, would they
That is why I have said its a 99% guaranteed trade, not a 100%...
Who do you think is the one in the other side of the trade when you buy?If I would be the SNB, I would be SELLing to all those buyers, then make a small 1000 pips spike down, re-BUY all the Stop Losses and put the price again in 1.20.
Just because it can't go down, doesn't mean it is going to go up very much either.
Actually, be very careful with your trades with or against CHF.Here is part of my ongoing research in regards to this topic:Scheinkman and Xiong (2004) survey how heterogeneous beliefs among investors generate speculation and trading using rational expectation dynamic models with no-trade theorem and show how investors overconfidence lead to speculation and trading. Wu and Guo (2002) go further with the research and argue that in non-stationary environment traders can learn only the stationary measure of observed data, but their belief can still remain non-stationary and diverse. In other words, speculative trading arises from disagreements between traders. It is clear from the literature that speculations arise from investor overconfidence and/or disagreements between market participants; however, current literature does not talk about how direct government intervention can lead to less speculative trading due to high level of transparency from national banks. In this paper, we will focus on recent National Bank of Switzerland (SNB) intervention in the currency market which both destroyed overconfidence of investors by establishing currency peg; and limited disagreements between traders by stating exactly what SNB plans to do in the near future. Switzerland was under speculative attack during 2011 in which Frank increased in value dramatically and reached almost parity with Euro. To prevent deflation and further speculative trading, SNB decided to first establish a peg to Euro at 1.20 value. Further, they have declared that this peg will be protected with unlimited resources and will not allow trading under this price. The market reaction was instant. The speculative trading stopped, price stabilized at the set level and market participants knew exactly what everyone else was planning at the moment, limiting disagreements to minimum. The study in this paper is currently ongoing, since the government intervention of this scale is a new phenomenon and data is still being collected. In the following sections, we will try to develop a model that explains how central banks can intervene in the assets market. We also want to know how much national bank wants to allow for speculative trading based on the signals they provide to market participant. The question arises whether or not national banks should control assets markets and how much freedom it should give to speculative trading. Since it is still a working paper, we assume that amount of national bank intervention and transparency will be negatively correlated to the amount of the speculation in the market. So what I mean in this introduction to my economic research is that it is highly possible that SNB wants just that - let the currency become flat for time so all the speculative attacks will stop. By stating "everyone trade CHF now" - this is also, speculative trading, and this is what SNB is fighting against. Just.be.careful.
the biggest question here is not if EURCHF is going up or down, but why are you promoting this trade like hell
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