Author Topic: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf  (Read 4126 times)

Offline FGB-Human

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Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« on: May 28, 2012, 09:30:25 am »
Hi guys

I am pretty surprised that no such topic has been opened on this forum eventhough we at an investment opportunity of a life time!

A buy order on EurChf from current price at 1.2020 with a stoploss at 1.1920 and an open target and high lot size  is 99% GUARANTEED to win in the next months (perhaps it would be better to just buy EurChf and leave it for the next years to come)

Who is providing the 99% guarantee on this trade? its the SNB (Swiss central bank)

How powerful is the swiss central bank? they made the EurChf go 1000 pips up in only 10
minutes last year

Why drop all your EAs? because if you open one full lot size on a $5K account you will likely DOUBLE your account vs. if you use the best EA out there you won't be provided with such guarantee on your investment because the past performance is not a guarantee of future performance... Simple as that!

The SNB has oulined the 1.2000 level as the minimum bid rate for EurChf last year, and the pair could never penetrate through it no matter how weak the Euro become, or how attractive the swiss franc gets.

So gentlemen, I think this topic is a lot hotter than the hottest topic on any forum out there.

I have bought the EurChf with my own money already, with relatively high lot size, and hope you guys do the same as well.

BOL  :)

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2012, 10:01:22 am »
Of course, the SNB would never change their minds, would they  :)

Offline fmonera

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2012, 10:05:27 am »
Who do you think is the one in the other side of the trade when you buy?

If I would be the SNB, I would be SELLing to all those buyers, then make a small 1000100 pips spike down, re-BUY all the Stop Losses and put the price again in 1.20.

edit: removed a typo (extra 0) :)
« Last Edit: May 28, 2012, 12:37:11 pm by fmonera »

Offline FGB-Human

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2012, 10:18:48 am »
Of course, the SNB would never change their minds, would they  :)

They might IF an extreme catastrophic event happen, such as a war declaration on Switzerland.
That is why I have said its a 99% guaranteed trade, not a 100%... So the winning probability is actually higher than buying a real-estate or any kind of other investment I know of.

Offline Kevin @ FXPIG

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2012, 10:24:00 am »
Quote
That is why I have said its a 99% guaranteed trade, not a 100%...

...famous last words

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Offline bendex

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2012, 10:24:23 am »
Just because it can't go down, doesn't mean it is going to go up very much either.

Offline FGB-Human

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2012, 10:35:46 am »
Who do you think is the one in the other side of the trade when you buy?

If I would be the SNB, I would be SELLing to all those buyers, then make a small 1000 pips spike down, re-BUY all the Stop Losses and put the price again in 1.20.

This is forex and SNB we are talking about, not roller coaster and Disneyland!

saying that the SNB is going drop the price 1000 pips below the minimum bid rate is literally equivalent of saying that Germany is going to invade Greece and the entire European union will collapse over night.

The SNB failure of keeping the 1.2000 as the minimum bid rate will get the EurUsd in a free fall and will permanently scar the big investors confidence in the Euro zone... thus. leading to the break of the European Union and a big spark of political tensions and could actually lead to a war!

You guys just need to expand your imagination and thinking to figure out why the SNB will NEVER dare to let go on the 1.2000 level.

I strongly believe that those who find this thread while the price in eurchf is still near the 1.2020 level and decide not to buy eurchf (IN BULK) and rather trade one of the best EAs on their accounts instead will have a huge regret in the near future.

BOL  :)

Offline maciejburno

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2012, 10:43:43 am »
Actually, be very careful with your trades with or against CHF.

Here is part of my ongoing research in regards to this topic:


Scheinkman and Xiong (2004) survey how heterogeneous beliefs among investors generate speculation and trading using rational expectation dynamic models with no-trade theorem and show how investors overconfidence lead to speculation and trading. Wu and Guo (2002) go further with the research and argue that in non-stationary environment traders can learn only the stationary measure of observed data, but their belief can still remain non-stationary and diverse. In other words, speculative trading arises from disagreements between traders.

It is clear from the literature that speculations arise from investor overconfidence and/or disagreements between market participants; however, current literature does not talk about how direct government intervention can lead to less speculative trading due to high level of transparency from national banks. In this paper, we will focus on recent National Bank of Switzerland (SNB) intervention in the currency market which both destroyed overconfidence of investors by establishing currency peg; and limited disagreements between traders by stating exactly what SNB plans to do in the near future.

Switzerland was under speculative attack during 2011 in which Frank increased in value dramatically and reached almost parity with Euro. To prevent deflation and further speculative trading, SNB decided to first establish a peg to Euro at 1.20 value. Further, they have declared that this peg will be protected with unlimited resources and will not allow trading under this price. The market reaction was instant. The speculative trading stopped, price stabilized at the set level and market participants knew exactly what everyone else was planning at the moment, limiting disagreements to minimum.
The study in this paper is currently ongoing, since the government intervention of this scale is a new phenomenon and data is still being collected. In the following sections, we will try to develop a model that explains how central banks can intervene in the assets market. We also want to know how much national bank wants to allow for speculative trading based on the signals they provide to market participant. The question arises whether or not national banks should control assets markets and how much freedom it should give to speculative trading. Since it is still a working paper, we assume that amount of national bank intervention and transparency will be negatively correlated to the amount of the speculation in the market.


So what I mean in this introduction to my economic research is that it is highly possible that SNB wants just that - let the currency become flat for time so all the speculative attacks will stop. By stating "everyone trade CHF now" - this is also, speculative trading, and this is what SNB is fighting against.

Just.be.careful.

Offline FGB-Human

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2012, 10:44:58 am »
Just because it can't go down, doesn't mean it is going to go up very much either.

you are right, but the probability of you making money with your EAs (on the long term) are much lower than the probabilty of seeing eurchf going side ways for years to come.

And do not forget that just last week we had an explosive up move in eurchf that faded quickly, but does remind us of how possible it is for eurchf to trade at higher prices in the future.

Offline fx.mstr

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2012, 10:47:29 am »
"You guys just need to expand your imagination and thinking to figure out why the SNB will NEVER dare to let go on the 1.2000 level."

It seems to me it happened already not long ago.


If you find my post interesting, funny, boring, annoying or meaningless please donate $1 to any animal shelter. :)

Offline FGB-Human

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2012, 10:54:10 am »
Actually, be very careful with your trades with or against CHF.

Here is part of my ongoing research in regards to this topic:


Scheinkman and Xiong (2004) survey how heterogeneous beliefs among investors generate speculation and trading using rational expectation dynamic models with no-trade theorem and show how investors overconfidence lead to speculation and trading. Wu and Guo (2002) go further with the research and argue that in non-stationary environment traders can learn only the stationary measure of observed data, but their belief can still remain non-stationary and diverse. In other words, speculative trading arises from disagreements between traders.

It is clear from the literature that speculations arise from investor overconfidence and/or disagreements between market participants; however, current literature does not talk about how direct government intervention can lead to less speculative trading due to high level of transparency from national banks. In this paper, we will focus on recent National Bank of Switzerland (SNB) intervention in the currency market which both destroyed overconfidence of investors by establishing currency peg; and limited disagreements between traders by stating exactly what SNB plans to do in the near future.

Switzerland was under speculative attack during 2011 in which Frank increased in value dramatically and reached almost parity with Euro. To prevent deflation and further speculative trading, SNB decided to first establish a peg to Euro at 1.20 value. Further, they have declared that this peg will be protected with unlimited resources and will not allow trading under this price. The market reaction was instant. The speculative trading stopped, price stabilized at the set level and market participants knew exactly what everyone else was planning at the moment, limiting disagreements to minimum.
The study in this paper is currently ongoing, since the government intervention of this scale is a new phenomenon and data is still being collected. In the following sections, we will try to develop a model that explains how central banks can intervene in the assets market. We also want to know how much national bank wants to allow for speculative trading based on the signals they provide to market participant. The question arises whether or not national banks should control assets markets and how much freedom it should give to speculative trading. Since it is still a working paper, we assume that amount of national bank intervention and transparency will be negatively correlated to the amount of the speculation in the market.


So what I mean in this introduction to my economic research is that it is highly possible that SNB wants just that - let the currency become flat for time so all the speculative attacks will stop. By stating "everyone trade CHF now" - this is also, speculative trading, and this is what SNB is fighting against.

Just.be.careful.

And does Wu Guo have any  verified performance proof of their trading? (I do not think so)
Just open your charts and use your eyes and you'll see why the EurChf is the best pair to use high leverage with and double your account. (Safely)

Offline cyberryder

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2012, 11:04:45 am »
the biggest question here is not if EURCHF is going up or down, but why are you promoting this trade like hell  ;D
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Offline trader578

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2012, 11:12:22 am »
The SNB may have every intention to WANT to maintain the 1.2000 on EURCHF, however the question is CAN they maintain it if Greece leaves the EuroZone and a breakup occurs?

Offline kaltrax

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2012, 11:24:43 am »
Thanks for your recomendation, i will sale my house, my car , my wife and play this like Soros... ;D
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Offline FGB-Human

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Re: Drop All your EAs NOW and buy EurChf
« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2012, 11:26:26 am »
the biggest question here is not if EURCHF is going up or down, but why are you promoting this trade like hell  ;D

I'll give you three answers and feel free to pick which ever one you want :

A) I was hired by the SNB to hype up the eurchf on public forums
B) I am stuck in eurchf with large positions and hoping to sell you my buy
contracts. haha
C) I really want to help this community make money

 ;D


 

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