NMI Super Scalper EA

[jonpearce]

If the EA has not been backtested / developed with a news filter to prove that avoiding news events increases profitability, then all signals should be taken.

Kinda defeats the purpose as the EA trades predominantly on spikes generated by news announcements.

Having researched results of past FOMC announcements I have made the choice to avoid trading them and have been thanked by others who took the advice and avoided losses.

At the end of the day I guess it boils down to this:
My account........my money..........my choice 

[IFFTrader]

Jon, are you avoiding all FOMC related news including tomorrow FOMC minutes?

[jonpearce]

Jon, are you avoiding all FOMC related news including tomorrow FOMC minutes?

The FOMC minutes.

Being in AU the FOMC occurs in the early hours of the morning here.
I turn everything off before I go to bed, then everything back on early the next morning when I get up for work. This happens a few hours after FOMC minutes.

This is only my personal choice. Because no actual figures are released as with most other news announcements, I feel the market second guesses the sentiment instead of reacting once figures are released.

At the request of a few HFT Group members I will run NMI SS on IC Markets and Armada Exchange to enable a comparison of results between these two brokers. These are smaller accounts so no big deal.

However,I will be turning them off on my Axi Pro account.

[Millennium]

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Jon, are you avoiding all FOMC related news including tomorrow FOMC minutes?

The FOMC minutes.

Being in AU the FOMC occurs in the early hours of the morning here.
I turn everything off before I go to bed, then everything back on early the next morning when I get up for work. This happens a few hours after FOMC minutes.

This is only my personal choice. Because no actual figures are released as with most other news announcements, I feel the market second guesses the sentiment instead of reacting once figures are released.

At the request of a few HFT Group members I will run NMI SS on IC Markets and Armada Exchange to enable a comparison of results between these two brokers. These are smaller accounts so no big deal.

However,I will be turning them off on my Axi Pro account.

Thanks Jon for sharing your thoughts and looking out for the best interests on NMi SS EA users, appreciated by all I am sure, including myself.

Ive been doing some thinking as well on risk management, let me your thoughts and experiences, but these decisions are based on the ones Ive had and as you know we've had a few scary ones.

Cheers, Adam

[Millennium]

Hi Folks,

Well I've been doing some pondering, partly motivated by the upcoming FOMC but more so from an ongoing risk management perspective.

Currently the EA is set with a 10% max downside intraday risk all pairs inclusive, running 0.5% risk per trade and 1% risk per EA instance. I based this on the experience of the ECN4 on a worst case basis. That account has only ever seen 2 days with an intraday equity loss exceeding 10% - 1 day where it recovered and ended up higher, and another on the day it got pasted and lost 30%.

So my rationale was that 10% should be fine and allow room for the usual ups and downs - but its somewhat flawed. The vast majority of days rarely see losses exceeding 2 or 3% maybe, that's 6 full losing trades running 0.5% risk per trade. On days where its losing that many trades are almost without exception the days where the market is going nuts, and its just not safe to run a tick scalper unless you really like playing with fire - can be great days for some but generally its negative experience. Most users haven't seen substantial one days losses in fact - but I feel its better to prepared in advance than be licking woulds after the fact and its especially important given this EA runs on 5 pairs simultaneously, unlike any other tick scalper.

With this in mind - the new default will be 5% - that's what Ive set accounts running at 0.5% risk per trade at, like the ECN4. I'm confident that's all it will require and this would have saved that ECN4 account, and others, from that merciless market that day.. The larger AXI account listed in in NMi's profile (which was also running that merciless day in the markets BTW, albeit for much lower loss) Ive set to 4%, because in fact it runs less than 0.5 risk per trade (2.0 lots fixed).

Of course you are free to implement your own risk management protocol, but 5% default will become the official default moving FWD with the v1.17 (yet to be released, revere trade edition currently in BETA). I think a 5% hit/loss of equity most can handle, and running 0.5% risk trade can easily generate 20% ROI monthly when run on 2 x MT4 x conservative:true+false.

Be safe, survive first with majority of your equity in tact on the bad days, the profits will come on the good days.

Cheers, Adam

[bearnakedbull]

Adam, I am wondering if there is a clear winner between aggressive and conservative yet? I have been of the belief that anything labelled as "aggressive" should be well respected and that if I want more risk I can just up it on the conservative chart. This plan certainly saves VPS resources and looking at different accounts I can't see much difference thus far. Thanks, Richard.

[Millennium]

Adam, I am wondering if there is a clear winner between aggressive and conservative yet? I have been of the belief that anything labelled as "aggressive" should be well respected and that if I want more risk I can just up it on the conservative chart. This plan certainly saves VPS resources and looking at different accounts I can't see much difference thus far. Thanks, Richard.

Hi Richard,

Aggressive simply enters more readily - runs smaller stop loss ( and quicker trail + lower stop clearance) and therefore a larger lot size for same risk % as conservative - and it makes more $ per pip.

You be right - there is no clear winner and as said all along - I suggest running them both (on 2 x MT4's) to smooth returns over time. Some do run coservative only - sometimes they miss out on losers, but also winners...... For me I run both, always have, because of the slight randomness of entries, slip etc - its about getting a better average entry and employing the systems edges edge as often as possible.

Certainly I dont think that "aggressive" really is reflective of it being more risky - but just that it enters more readily. More trades, means more potential for gain or loss.

Cheers, Adam

[Millennium]

Howdy All,

Well, fortune favors the brave they say (if u can call 4% max daily loss as being brave, but I went to sleep easier), and those that braved the FOMC seemed to have more gains than loss - not all - but most - and on real money accounts, which is what really counts.

Hope you got some nice pips, too.

Cheers, Adam

[ninjaturtle]

Howdy All,

Well, fortune favors the brave they say (if u can call 4% max daily loss as being brave, but I went to sleep easier), and those that braved the FOMC seemed to have more gains than loss - not all - but most - and on real money accounts, which is what really counts.

Hope you got some nice pips, too.

Cheers, Adam

it almost seems noone else traded the FOMC yesterday. spike was pretty clean and profitable. personally, i've never turned my tickscalper off and i'm ready to accept my pre-determined losses. Adam, 4% max daily loss for FOMC feels like keeping it on a tight reign and i'm sure helped the sleep 

[jonpearce]

Here is the FOMC trade summary for those interested.

Identical setup on both brokers.

IC Markets True ECN:   18 trades for +24.4 pips

Armada Exchange:       28 trades for +24.4 pips!

[crashev]

Here is the FOMC trade summary for those interested.

Identical setup on both brokers.

IC Markets True ECN:   18 trades for +24.4 pips

Armada Exchange:       28 trades for +24.4 pips!

Just to mention Your words:

"FOMC historically gives bad results more often than not.
Personally, I happily trade all NFP's but avoid FOMC at all cost."

[jonpearce]

Here is the FOMC trade summary for those interested.

Identical setup on both brokers.

IC Markets True ECN:   18 trades for +24.4 pips

Armada Exchange:       28 trades for +24.4 pips!

Just to mention Your words:

"FOMC historically gives bad results more often than not.
Personally, I happily trade all NFP's but avoid FOMC at all cost."

Hmmmmm.......you must have missed this part of my previous post regarding FOMC:

"At the request of a few HFT Group members I will run NMI SS on IC Markets and Armada Exchange to enable a comparison of results between these two brokers. These are smaller accounts so no big deal.

However,I will be turning them off on my Axi Pro account."

 

[crashev]

Here is the FOMC trade summary for those interested.

Identical setup on both brokers.

IC Markets True ECN:   18 trades for +24.4 pips

Armada Exchange:       28 trades for +24.4 pips!

Just to mention Your words:

"FOMC historically gives bad results more often than not.
Personally, I happily trade all NFP's but avoid FOMC at all cost."

Hmmmmm.......you must have missed this part of my previous post regarding FOMC:

"At the request of a few HFT Group members I will run NMI SS on IC Markets and Armada Exchange to enable a comparison of results between these two brokers. These are smaller accounts so no big deal.

However,I will be turning them off on my Axi Pro account."

 

Actually I did not .
It's not the matter that You traded, but the matter of what I said when I was posting with You about FOMC - that You never know
if FOMC or NFP will be profitable or not, so the only thing You should control here is risk, not switching EAs off if You don't feel comfortable
with some of the news events that triggers volatility.
AFAIK there are no backtests that would clearly show that either NFP or FOMC were not profitable in the long run.

That's all

[4maT]

@ Adam,

Hi Adam, I send you an email a couple of days ago about the login for 1.16
I downloaded and installed 1.16 and the login seems changed. before I had to put a username and password and now I have to put in my email and clickbanknr. I tried both ways, but I can't login with the EA anymore.

4maT

[3827]

(Maybe Out of Topic)

I have been trading Emini S & P using TradeStation automated strategies in past 6 years and I always avoid FOMC meetings, minutes releases and congressional testify sessions.